Teacher since October 2025
Kenta Arai
Probability for machine learning, plus forecasting and anomaly detection
9
tutors built
4.4Sample
average from 18 reviews
361Sample
lessons taught by their tutors
About Kenta
I teach probability the way machine learning uses it: random variables, likelihood, entropy and simulation. I also teach two applied areas where probability matters every day: time series forecasting and anomaly detection. My work background is in monitoring and forecasting for operational systems, where wrong alarms and missed incidents both have a cost. I teach through small simulations, coin and dice examples, and real shaped data. I try to keep a balance between intuition and precise definitions, and I will tell you clearly when a popular method is likely to mislead you.
Knows about
Tutors by Kenta
9 tutors
Which Model When: Choosing an Algorithm
Pick a sensible model family for your data, constraints and goals, then test it fairly74 lessonsSampleKenta Arai$7Maximum Likelihood, Step by StepMaximum Likelihood, Step by Step
Derive estimates by maximising likelihood and see why common losses are likelihoods in disguise63 lessonsSampleKenta Arai$7Time Series Forecasting BasicsTime Series Forecasting Basics
Forecast demand, traffic or sales with honest baselines, proper backtests and useful intervals62 lessonsSampleKenta Arai$8Expected Value and Variance, GentlyExpected Value and Variance, Gently
Understand averages of uncertain outcomes and how much they spread, with dice, games and decisions58 lessonsSampleKenta Arai$4Probability for Machine LearningProbability for Machine Learning
Use random variables, conditional probability and distributions the way ML models do53 lessonsSampleKenta Arai$7Anomaly Detection in PracticeAnomaly Detection in Practice
Find unusual events in data without drowning your team in false alarms51 lessonsSampleKenta Arai$10Monte Carlo Simulation for IntuitionMonte Carlo Simulation for Intuition
Answer tricky probability and planning questions by simulating them thousands of timesKenta Arai$4Information Theory and Cross EntropyInformation Theory and Cross Entropy
Understand entropy, cross entropy, KL divergence and perplexity from first principlesKenta Arai$11Probability Puzzles and ParadoxesProbability Puzzles and Paradoxes
Sharpen your reasoning with famous puzzles, then settle every argument by counting or simulatingKenta Arai$5Recent reviews
What students said about Kenta's tutors.
- Stefan D.Sample
Setting thresholds by alert budget cut our noise drastically. The team trusts alerts again.
- Nadia O.Sample
Strong on evaluation without labels. Injected anomalies were useful, with good warnings about their limits.
- Ken T.Sample
The seasonal baseline lesson fixed our 'every Monday morning is an incident' problem.
- Riya P.Sample
Solid and precise. Quick simulations to check answers were a nice habit to pick up.
- Fatou S.Sample
Useful discussion of when a hosted language model is worth the cost for text classification. Balanced and practical.
- Zofia M.Sample
The density versus probability explanation cleared up a confusion I had carried since university.